I don't know anything about your current lifestyle, knowledge, or control. I am merely basing this off what I have read here, maybe you already know all this or maybe you will be able to get something helpful from this.
An increase in the morning is normal (in the sense that it's a biological effect), however can be corrected. Dawn phenomenon is when after sleeping for a certain period of time, it's believed the liver deactivates insulin, causing a rise in bg in the morning.
Insulin absorption rates vary depending on location. The amount of insulin that reaches the blood stream varies on the location and the amount injected at the time. The more you inject, the greater the variation of how much actually makes it into the blood. There are a great many of other factors too, such as having a hot bath right after taking an injection. That can cause a rapid absorption and set you up for hypoglycemia.
Taking multiple corrections in a short period of time. The first correction can take a couple hours to have the proper effect. I've personally seen with myself a correction to start taking effect in approximately 30 minutes upwards to a couple hours.
High BG causes insulin resistance. Eating high amounts of carbohydrates can cause a spike in BG which can result in insulin resistance which makes any prediction difficult. Plus factoring in absorption rates and the amount of insulin that is actually used.
As already mentioned, have you tried a low carbohydrate diet? It can make prediction vastly easier, cause lower insulin dosages which means smaller margins of error, smaller mistakes, smaller corrections and results in smaller variance of readings.
Of course, your lifestyle, medications, and biological factors could be contributing too.
